According to the report, the driving force behind the anticipated surge in domestic demand is the expected improvement in consumption expenditures by public administrations. These entities are poised to reinforce their investments during this period, contributing to the overall growth.
However, the report notes a potential hurdle in the form of income deceleration, particularly in rural areas where adverse weather conditions are impacting livelihoods. Despite this challenge, the HCP (Haut-Commissariat au Plan) suggests that the negative effects on household expenses could be partially offset by an increase in public transfers.
On the corporate front, the report indicates a slowdown in investments by non-financial enterprises. This deceleration is occurring against the backdrop of sustained growth in banking financing costs, as outlined by the HCP.
A noteworthy trend highlighted in the report is the persistently negative contribution of foreign trade to economic activity for the third consecutive quarter. This factor is expected to reduce the overall economic growth by 1.8 points, emphasizing the challenges faced in the global market.
The HCP report also discusses the dynamics of international trade, pointing out that despite strong foreign demand for automotive products and continuous growth in exports of phosphate derivatives, the overall growth in the volume of goods and services exports is projected to slow down to 11.4% in Q1 2024, compared to 15.5% in the previous quarter. This slowdown is attributed to a decline in the growth of services.
Conversely, import growth is expected to remain robust, fueled by improved domestic demand and a resurgence in purchases of semi-finished products.