Moroccan Sahara

Understand the roots and dynamics of the regional dispute

A complex decolonization process

During the colonial period, Morocco (known then as the Cherifien empire) was divided from 1895 to 1912 by colonial powers into several zones (protectorates and colonies) administered by France (center) and Spain (north and south) while the city of Tangier was declared as an international zone administered by 12 powers.
In this context, Morocco’s decolonization process was not a straightforward, linear process but a rather long, gradual and complex one, which saw several negotiation processes with various colonial powers to fully regain its territorial integrity: in 1956, Morocco achieved independence from France, recuperated Tangier and launched negotiations with Spain, which led to its withdrawal, the same year, from the northern part of the Kingdom. Subsequently, Morocco negotiated the withdrawal of Spain from its remaining enclaves and territories in the south: Tarfaya in 1958 (Cintra Agreement), Sidi Ifni in 1969 (Fez Agreement) and the Saqia al Hamra and Oued Eddahab regions, known more as Western Sahara, in 1975, by virtue of the Madrid Agreements and the ties recognized by the International Court of Justice linking Morocco to these territories prior to Spanish rule.

The theater of a proxy war during the Cold War

For geopolitical reasons related to the Cold War context, Algeria – an important actor in the eastern block – resolved to obstruct the recognition by the international community of Morocco’s retrocession of all its territories under colonial rule. Using its diplomatic, military and financial assets, Algeria supported the creation of a separatist group known as the polisario in order to undermine Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara.

The involvement of the United Nations

The United Nations was tasked to monitor the ceasefire and to assist the parties in the organization of a referendum called for by Morocco in 1981 to resolve the matter. Divergent views on voter eligibility led to over a decade of negotiations with no outcome on the latter. In 2000, UN Secretary-General Koffi Annan recognized the non-inapplicability of the settlement plan and the holding of a referendum and called for the parties to work toward a political resolution to this regional dispute. Ever since, the Security Council supports the United Nations’ good offices to reach a mutually acceptable political solution of compromise between the parties to the regional dispute. 

The Moroccan Autonomy Proposal: a win-win and compromise solution

In this context, Morocco submitted to the Security Council on 11 April 2007 an Autonomy Initiative proposal for its Saharan provinces in order to put an end to the long-standing artificial regional dispute. This proposal was the fruit of years of brainstorming and discussions within the UN in order to move beyond the existing status quo and find a final solution to this conflict. The Autonomy Initiative is a basis for negotiations with the other parties. It is substantive, innovative, and in accordance with the principles of international law.
Morocco’s efforts toward finding a compromise solution – through its Autonomy Initiative – were welcomed and deemed as “serious and credible” by the Security Council in all its resolutions since 2007. These efforts generated a positive momentum, which led to four formal rounds and nine informal rounds of negotiations with the polisario where Algeria and Mauritania were also present. The polisario and Algeria multiplied their attempts to derail the process through a systematic instrumentalization of human rights issues, natural resources and military provocations to break the ceasefire (Guerguerat crisis in 2016) stalling the talks since 2012.

The polisario: a liberation movement?

During the Spanish colonial period, Morocco was the only country to claim the territory at the international level (UN decolonization committee in 1963). The polisario did not exist. This entity was created months prior to the withdrawal of Spain from the territory, in February 1976, with the support of Algeria and Kadhafi of Libya. Internationally, the polisario is recognized as an armed group and in some instances as a terrorist group (eg: Japan), but not as a liberation movement. It predominantly comprises members of a single tribe among twelve dominant tribes in the Saharan provinces of Morocco. Yet, the polisario claims to be their sole representative, while it holds no legal or popular base or any democratic legitimacy to aspire to be the voice of the Sahrawis in the south of Morocco. Moreover, the polisario does not have a physical foothold in the Sahara as its base is in neighboring Algeria. The entire population of the polisario camps in the Tindouf region, in Algeria, is roughly estimated at around 45,000 inhabitants compared to the 350,000 Sahrawis living in Morocco as citizens who exercise their full rights (The southern provinces have the highest voter turnout in the country: 79%).

The unique nature of the Tindouf Camps

For the past 40 years, the population in the Tindouf camps in Algeria has been deprived of their rights as Algeria has systematically blocked the United Nations from holding a census of the camps, in accordance with international humanitarian law including the 1951 UN refugee Convention, all Security Council resolutions since 2011 and the Secretary-General’s recommendations in his latest reports. This approach aims to conceal the realities in the camps and maintain overestimated numbers of refugees, which allow local officials and the polisario to embezzle humanitarian aid for their personal and fraudulent enrichment. Furthermore, the continued militarization of the camps is a clear violation of international humanitarian law. The civilian population in Tindouf is prevented from free movement and the right to return to Morocco or settle in other parts of the Algerian territory or a third country. The population has been used as a tool to justify their cause in total disregard with their wellbeing.

Rising regional security threats

In the past decade, the stability of the Sahel-Saharan region has steadily been eroded. Sahelian States have weak security institutions to address the emerging global challenges (drug trafficking/cocaine from South America, migration, terrorism). Terrorism is spreading progressively to the region of North-West Africa and the Lake Chad Basin. The nexus between transnational organized crime and terrorism is strengthening and continues to finance in the Sahel Saharan region armed groups and separatist movements such as the polisario of which some elements have been put on the State Department Terrorist list (eg: Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi leader of ISIS in the greater Sahara).
In addition, the lack of cooperation between Morocco and Algeria, whose borders remain closed since 1994, and where diplomatic relations have been unilaterally suspended since 2021 by Algiers, hinders adequate security cooperation, which would be beneficial to the Maghreb and Sahel states. Despite Morocco’s repeated calls to reconciliation, Algerian authorities have opted once more to maintain the status quo.

In light of these events, it is imperative that a long-lasting final solution to the regional dispute over the Sahara is found in order to foster greater regional security cooperation. The strategy adopted by Algeria and the polisario to push for an independent State is an unrealistic toxic approach that threatens to further destabilize the region through the creation of a failed state. A failed state on the Atlantic coast as well as on the doorsteps of the Mediterranean and the Sahel regions would be a threat to regional and international stability.In this spirit, all the stake holders stressed that independence was not an option and supported a political solution of compromise that respects Morocco’s territorial integrity and its sovereignty.

Promising prospects for the future of the southern provinces of Morocco

Morocco is currently implementing its advanced regionalization process, with its southern regions serving as a pilot program. This process will provide Morocco’s regions to become autonomous powers. In addition, Morocco’s investments of hundreds of billions of US dollars in the region aim to transform the southern provinces into a major trade hub (Dakhla Atlantic Port) between Morocco and sub-saharan Africa as well as into a new touristic destination (Dakhla). Morocco has successfully secured FDIs into the region from France and the Gulf countries (eg: UAE, KSA, Qatar) for major infrastructure projects. In 2017, McDonald’s opened its first franchise in the southern provinces (Laayoune).

No Path Backward

The succession of acknowledgments by various nations regarding Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara region, coupled with support for the proposed autonomy plan solution, which the Kingdom positions as the "sole solution" to the long-standing issue, marks a significant development in a protracted diplomatic stalemate spanning decades.

Foremost among these nations is the United States, which officially declared its support for Morocco's sovereignty over the Sahara at the end of 2020, aligning with Morocco's historical support for the United States' independence, being the first country to recognize it as an independent state.

Spain's endorsement of Morocco’s autonomy plan further strengthens Morocco's stance, with Spain officially affirming that the plan represents "the most serious, realistic, and credible basis for resolving the dispute." This historic shift in Spain’s policy on the Sahara issue is of paramount importance given its historical colonial authority over the territory and its familiarity with the region's demographic composition during its administration.

Moreover, a growing international support base for Morocco on this issue is evident. Over forty countries have expressed their support for Morocco's autonomy plan, as demonstrated by their broad participation in the Ministerial Conference supporting the Moroccan sovereignty-based autonomy initiative on January 15, 2021, convened by the United States and Morocco. In addition to the United States and France, several African nations participated in the event to express their backing for the Moroccan proposal, including Senegal, Gabon, Gambia, Guinea, Zambia, Togo, Comoros, Guinea-Bissau, Equatorial Guinea, Malawi, Liberia, Ivory Coast, Djibouti, as well as the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Burundi, and Benin.

The Arab League has consistently manifested its unequivocal support for Morocco's territorial integrity, encompassing its Sahara region. Notably, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Jordan have endorsed this territorial integrity by opening consulates in the southern provinces. Moreover, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have persistently advocated for the Moroccaness of the Sahara within various United Nations bodies. This collective Arab support further reinforces the international regional consensus on the matter.

Support for the Moroccan proposal extends to other countries outside Africa, including Guatemala, Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, São Tomé and Príncipe, Saint Lucia, the Dominican Republic, Barbados, Jamaica, the Maldives, El Salvador, and Eswatini.

Morocco’s autonomy plan has been garnering backing from European nations, notably Spain, Belgium, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Hungary, Romania, Portugal, and Serbia, marking no path backward in the process of resolution of this intractable conflict within the parameters of the autonomy plan. Along with the named Arab countries which opened consulates in the Moroccan Sahara, the following map demonstrates the nations which took the same path: